Concerns about potential escalation in the situation between Ukraine and Russia, plus a move back above certain technical chart levels, should support gold prices next week, a majority of participants said in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey.
Out of 33 participants, 19 responded this week. Twelve see prices up, while four see prices down and three see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Last week, a majority of the survey participants said they looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:45 a.m. EDT Friday, Comex gold for June delivery was up about $8 for the week.
Renewed worries over tensions between Ukraine and Russia pushed gold prices higher late this week, and several survey participants said they are erring on the side of caution and calling for higher prices next week.
“Gold went ‘bid’ as soon as there was violence and death. A diplomatic and political standoff is enough to support gold, but it takes guns going off to propel it higher. It is anyone’s guess as to what happens in Ukraine, but with more violence gold will go higher and without it, steady to lower. The volatility means that gold remains a short-term trading opportunity, not a long-term position play. The rebound from 10-week lows was impressive this week and traders will most likely go home long for this weekend, so I will look for a higher market next week,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading.
Not everyone thinks gold is going go higher, when factoring in all the elements that influence gold. Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of the Linn Group, said he’s “in the bear camp, but without a bear position in place.”
He said considering inflation in most developed countries is “a non-issue,” stock indexes are higher
and world economies are improving, there are more negatives than positives for gold. “The question now is whether or not things heat up enough in the Ukraine to move gold higher,” he said, adding that he doesn’t expect a war over Ukraine, “especially when Europe has no appetite to put its energy supplies from Russia at risk.”
A few see prices range-bound.
“(It’s a) tough call this week. A strong argument could be made for all three directions. If I had to pick one, it would be sideways,” said Darin Newsom, senior analyst, DTN. “The June contract has posted a strong rally off its test of technical support at $1,265.20, and is poised for a higher weekly close. All this despite weekly Stochastics that remain bearish. This could easily set the stage for a continued rally next week back to resistance between $1,321.30 and $1,334.80. However, for arguments sake, I’ll say that the contract calms down next week and consolidates within this week’s range, so far, of $1,303.50 to $1,268.40.”
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